Power Forecasting to Enable Peak Shaving in a Gas Turbine–Based Standalone Microgrid with PV Integration

Abstract

Standalone microgrids in isolated areas often use gas turbines to provide reliable electricity. However, when the power demand becomes very high, the gas turbine must work under heavy load conditions. This can increase fuel consumption, speed up equipment aging, and raise maintenance costs. This project proposes a method based on power forecasting to reduce peak loads in a standalone microgrid that uses a gas turbine and photovoltaic (PV) energy. The method uses historical operating data to predict the total power output of the microgrid and identify the periods when peak demand may occur. After detecting these expected peak periods, the suitable size of the PV plant can be selected so that solar energy can help supply the load during critical times. In this way, the PV system contributes to peak shaving and reduces the power stress on the gas turbine. By limiting the operation of the gas turbine under extreme load conditions, this approach can help extend its lifetime, reduce maintenance costs, and keep the electricity supply reliable. Therefore, combining power forecasting with proper PV sizing can improve both the technical and economic performance of standalone microgrids.